On Tuesday, February 2, the Strauss Center, Intelligence Studies Project, and Clements Center are pleased to welcome Markus Garlauskas, a former North Korea National Intelligence Officer and Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Asia Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, for a virtual talk on “The North Korea Forecast for 2021: A Former National Intelligence Officer’s View.”
Sheena Greitens, Associate Professor of Public Affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs will moderate the talk.
North Korea is often described by perplexed pundits as “unpredictable,” and even experienced intelligence professionals refer to it as a “hard target.” Garlauskas will explain the analytic tradecraft that can be used to meet the difficult challenge of making strategic-level forecasts of North Korean behavior, based on nearly two decades of experience in government focused on North Korea at the US National Intelligence Council and in the headquarters of US Forces Korea. He will then apply this methodology to provide an overall forecast of what to expect from North Korea in 2021, and the implications of various scenarios for US policy and strategy under the new Administration. His presentation will be followed by a question and answer session, where he will share insights useful for better understanding North Korea, as well as for careers in strategy and intelligence.